LEADER 03627cam a22004335i 4500001 99131235157906421 005 20220223192010.0 006 m d 007 cr cn||||||||| 008 020129s2021 dcu o i00 0 eng^^ 024 7 10.1596/36865 |2doi 035 (CKB)4920000001215398 035 (The World Bank)36865 035 (US-djbf)36865 035 (EXLCZ)994920000001215398 040 DJBF |beng |cDJBF |erda 100 1 Hatayama, Maho. 245 10 Understanding and Predicting Job Losses Due to COVID-19 : |bEmpirical Evidence from Middle Income Countries / |cMaho Hatayama. 246 Understanding and Predicting Job Losses Due to COVID-19 264 1 Washington, D.C. : |bThe World Bank, |c2021. 336 text |btxt |2rdacontent 337 computer |bc |2rdamedia 338 online resource |bcr |2rdacarrier 347 data file |2rda 490 1 Other papers. 520 3 This paper utilizes firm survey data to understand which formal private sector jobs are most at risk from COVID-19 or similar future crises, based on empirical evidence from two middle income economies. In particular, it estimates the importance for formal private-sector job losses of various COVID-19 pandemic-related labor market shocks and mitigating factors, such as the closure of non-essential industries, workers' ability to perform their jobs from home, infection risks to workers, customers' infection risk, global demand shocks, input supply constraints, employers' financial constraints, and government support, in determining the level and distribution of job losses. This provides an empirical identification of the main risk factors for job loss and a basis for predicting the level and distribution of these losses due to the crisis. The methodology is applied to permanent formal private sector (PFPS) jobs in core productive manufacturing and services sectors (captured by World bank Enterprise Surveys) in Jordan and Georgia, which contain the requisite data to link occupational structure, task content, and firm-level shocks. Comparing empirical findings across the two, the paper assesses the degree of commonality of these risk factors. Job losses are projected for different groups within the employed population prior to the outbreak of COVID-19 and compared with post-crisis labor force data. The results indicate that in these countries the level of job losses is predominantly due to a reduction in demand rather than a reduction in the supply of labor. Closures, global demand shocks, supply disruptions, and other unexplained demand side shocks are significant determinants of jobs lost. Sensitivity of employment to closures, supply disruptions, and sales shocks was of similar magnitude in both countries; however, variation in infection risk was a significant determinant of sales only in Georgia. At the same time, Georgian formal firms were better able to rebound their sales and hire back workers than formal firms in Jordan. Finally, the paper finds no evidence that firms with workers performing tasks that can be performed from home were better able to preserve jobs, given the dominant role of firm-level demand and supply chain shocks. 650 4 Coronavirus 650 4 COVID-19 650 4 Disease Control and Prevention 650 4 Employment 650 4 Employment and Unemployment 650 4 Health, Nutrition and Population 650 4 Labor Market 650 4 Private Sector 650 4 Private Sector Development 650 4 Private Sector Economics 650 4 Social Protections and Labor 700 1 Li, Yiruo. 700 1 Osborne, Theresa. 830 0 Other papers. 830 0 World Bank e-Library. 906 BOOK