Details

Subject(s)

• Economic forecasting—Developing countries [Browse]
• Developing countries—Economic conditions [Browse]

Series

World Bank Group flagship report. [More in this series]

Summary note

The global recovery is set to decelerate amid diminished policy support, continued COVID-19 flare-ups, and lingering supply bottlenecks. In contrast to that in advanced economies, output in emerging market and developing economies will remain markedly below pre-pandemic trends over the forecast horizon. The outlook is clouded by various downside risks, including new COVID-19 outbreaks, the possibility of de-anchored inflation expectations, and financial stress in a context of record-high debt levels. If some countries eventually require debt restructuring, this will be more difficult to achieve than in the past. Climate change may increase commodity price volatility, creating challenges for the almost two-thirds of emerging market and developing economies that rely heavily on commodity exports and highlighting the need for asset diversification. Social tensions may heighten as a result of the increase in inequality caused by the pandemic. These challenges underscore the importance of strengthened global cooperation to promote a green, resilient, and inclusive recovery path. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.

Bibliographic references

Includes bibliographical references.

Source of description

• Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.
• Description based on print version record.

Contents

• Cover
• Half Title
• Title Page
• Copyright Page
• Summary of Contents
• Table of Contents
• Acknowledgments
• Foreword
• Executive Summary
• Abbreviations
• Chapter 1: Global Outlook
• Summary
• Global context
• Pandemic developments
• Global trade
• Commodity markets
• Global inflation and financial developments
• Major economies: Recent developments and outlook
• Advanced economies
• China
• Emerging market and developing economies
• Recent developments
• Outlook
• Per capita income growth, poverty, and inequality
• Global outlook and risks
• Global outlook
• Risks to the outlook
• Policy challenges
• Key global challenges
• Challenges in advanced economies
• Challenges in emerging market and developing economies
• References
• Special Focus: Resolving High Debt after the Pandemic: Lessons from Past Episodes of Debt Relief
• Introduction
• Lessons from past debt resolutions
• Past debt resolution
• Past umbrella facilities for debt relief
• Commonalities among past umbrella frameworks for debt relief
• Differences among past umbrella frameworks for debt relief
• Changes in debt resolution and the emergence of collective action clauses
• The Common Framework in historical comparison
• Implications for future debt reduction and resolution
• Chapter 2: Regional Outlooks
• East Asia and Pacific
• Risks
• Europe and Central Asia
• Latin America and the Caribbean
• Middle East and North Africa
• South Asia
• Sub-Saharan Africa
• Chapter 3: Commodity Price Cycles: Drivers and Policies
• Introduction.
• Main features of commodity cycles
• Empirical approach
• Features of commodity price cycles
• Recent commodity price movements compared with historical experience
• Evolution of commodity cycles
• Crude oil
• Coal
• Aluminum
• Copper
• Coffee
• Drivers of commodity cycles
• Global commodity prices
• Drivers of commodity prices
• Policy options
• Need for policy action
• Macroeconomic and regulatory policies
• Structural policies
• Conclusion
• Annex 3.1 Methodology for dating turning points
• Annex 3.2 Methodology for estimating concordance
• Annex 3.3 Methodology: Factor-augmented vector autoregression
• Annex 3.4 Additional tables
• Chapter 4: Impact of COVID-19 on Global Income Inequality
• Recent trends in global income inequality
• Distributional impacts of disruptive events
• Transmission channels
• Empirical estimates from the literature
• Event study
• Effects of COVID-19 on income inequality
• COVID-19 pandemic: Aggravating factors
• Policies deployed during the COVID-19 pandemic
• High-frequency phone surveys to assess the distributional impact of the pandemic
• Impact of COVID-19 on within-country income inequality: Simulations
• Implications for between-country and global inequality
• Empirical evidence from the literature
• Policy implications
• Annex 4.1 Data challenges
• Annex 4.2 Technical details on the simulation exercises
• Annex 4.3 Additional results
• Statistical Appendix
• Data and Forecast Conventions
• Selected Topics
• Boxes
• 1.1 Regional perspectives: Outlook and risks
• 1.2 Recent developments and outlook for low-income countries
• 3.1 Drivers of commodity cycles
• 4.1 Within-country inequality around recessions, financial crises, and epidemics
• 4.2 Evidence on the distributional effects of past policy initiatives.
• Figures
• 1.1 Global prospects
• 1.2 Global risks and policy challenges
• 1.3 Pandemic developments
• 1.4 Global trade
• 1.5 Commodity markets
• 1.6 Global inflation and financial developments
• 1.7 Major economies: Recent developments and outlook
• 1.8 Recent developments in emerging market and developing economies
• 1.9 Outlook in emerging market and developing economies
• B1.1.1 Regional outlook
• B1.1.2 Regional risks
• 1.10 Per capita income, poverty, and inequality
• 1.11 Global outlook
• B1.2.1 LICs: Recent developments
• B1.2.2 LICs: Outlook and risks
• 1.12 Downside risks: Simultaneous Omicron-driven economic disruptions
• 1.13 Downside risks: Worsening supply bottlenecks and de-anchored inflation expectations
• 1.14 Downside risks: Financial stress
• 1.15 Downside risks: Natural disasters and climate change
• 1.16 Policy challenges in advanced economies
• 1.17 Monetary policy challenges in emerging market and developing economies
• 1.18 Fiscal policy challenges in emerging market and developing economies
• 1.19 Longer-term policy challenges in emerging market and developing economies
• SF.1 Debt
• SF.2 Debt increases and composition before and after the Brady Plan and HIPC/MDRI
• SF.3 Umbrella debt restructuring frameworks
• SF.4 Economic growth before and after debt relief
• 2.1.1 China: Recent developments
• 2.1.2 EAP excluding China: Recent developments
• 2.1.3 EAP: Outlook
• 2.1.4 EAP: Risks
• 2.2.1 ECA: Recent developments
• 2.2.2 ECA: Outlook
• 2.2.3 ECA: Risks
• 2.3.1 LAC: Recent developments
• 2.3.2 LAC: Outlook
• 2.3.3 LAC: Risks
• 2.4.1 MENA: Recent developments
• 2.4.2 MENA: Outlook
• 2.4.3 MENA: Risks
• 2.5.1 SAR: Recent developments
• 2.5.2 SAR: Outlook
• 2.5.3 SAR: Risks
• 2.6.1 SSA: Recent developments
• 2.6.2 SSA: Outlook
• 2.6.3 SSA: Risks
• 3.1 Commodity prices.
• 3.2 Importance of commodities
• 3.3 Duration, amplitude, and slope
• 3.4 Synchronization of commodity price cycles
• 3.5 Commodity prices around global recessions and downturns
• 3.6 Crude oil
• 3.7 Coal
• 3.8 Aluminum and copper
• 3.9 Coffee
• B3.1.1 Global commodity prices
• B3.1.2 Contributions of global shocks to commodity prices
• 3.10 Structural policies and capital flow volatility in EMDEs
• A3.1.1 Commodity prices
• 4.1 Within-country income inequality and poverty, 2000-09 and 2010-19
• 4.2 Within-country income inequality and poverty, by region and country group, 2000-09 and 2010-19
• 4.3 Between-country and global income inequality, 2000-20
• B4.1.1 Literature review: Studies indicating an increase or decrease in inequality after an event
• B4.1.2 Event study: Inequality around recessions, crises, and epidemics, 1970-2019
• 4.4 Shares of countries implementing social protection measures in response to COVID-19, 2020-21
• 4.5 Shares of countries implementing social protection measures in response to COVID-19, by EMDE region, 2020-21
• 4.6 Government support spending on COVID-19
• 4.7 Households in EMDEs receiving government assistance during the COVID-19 pandemic, 2020
• 4.8 Firms in EMDEs receiving government support during the COVID-19 pandemic, 2020
• 4.9 Households reporting income losses in EMDEs since the beginning of the pandemic, 2020
• 4.10 Households reporting work stoppages in EMDEs since the beginning of the pandemic, 2020
• 4.11 Firms reporting cuts in working hours or wages in EMDEs since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, 2020
• 4.12 Job recovery in EMDEs, 2020
• 4.13 Impact of COVID-19 on education in EMDEs, 2020
• 4.14 Distributional impacts of COVID-19 in EMDEs, 2019-20
• 4.15 Estimated changes in between-country income inequality
• B4.2.1 Pre- and post-tax Gini indices, 1990-2018.
• A4.1.1 Within-country income inequality and poverty (5-year averages) 1990-2019
• A4.1.2 Within-country income inequality and poverty (population-weighted averages), 2000-19
• Tables
• 1.1 Real GDP
• B1.2.1 Low-income country forecasts
• 1.2 Emerging market and developing economies
• 2.1.1 East Asia and Pacific forecast summary
• 2.1.2 East Asia and Pacific country forecasts
• 2.2.1 Europe and Central Asia forecast summary
• 2.2.2 Europe and Central Asia country forecasts
• 2.3.1 Latin America and the Caribbean forecast summary
• 2.3.2 Latin America and the Caribbean country forecasts
• 2.4.1 Middle East and North Africa forecast summary
• 2.4.2 Middle East and North Africa economy forecasts
• 2.5.1 South Asia forecast summary
• 2.5.2 South Asia country forecasts
• 2.6.1 Sub-Saharan Africa forecast summary
• 2.6.2 Sub-Saharan Africa country forecasts
• A3.1.1 Peaks and troughs in price cycles for selected commodities since 1970
• A3.2.1 Concordance matrix of real commodity prices
• A3.4.1 Characteristics of commodity price cycles
• A3.4.2 Global recessions and downturns since 1970
• A4.2.1 Sample of countries used in simulations
• A4.3.1 Impact of COVID-19 on income inequality: Main transmission channels
• A4.3.2 Additional results from the event study
• A4.3.3 Estimated probability of income losses.

Show 201 more Contents items

ISBN

1-4648-1760-X

OCLC

1302260436

Other standard number

• 10.1596/978-1-4648-1758-8

Statement on language in description

Princeton University Library aims to describe library materials in a manner that is respectful to the individuals and communities who create, use, and are represented in the collections we manage. Read more...