The Aggregate Effects of Global and Local Supply Chain Disruptions: 2020-2022 / George A. Alessandria, Shafaat Y. Khan, Armen Khederlarian, Carter B. Mix, Kim J. Ruhl.

Author
Alessandria, George A. [Browse]
Format
Book
Language
English
Published/​Created
Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2023.
Description
1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Details

Series
  • Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w30849. [More in this series]
  • NBER working paper series no. w30849
Summary note
We study the aggregate effects of supply-chain disruptions in the post-pandemic period in a heterogeneous-firm, general equilibrium model with input-output linkages and a rich set of supply chain frictions: uncertain shipping delays, fixed order costs, and storage costs. Firms optimally hold inventories that depend on the source of supply, domestic or imported. Increases in shipping times are contractionary, raise prices, and increase stockouts, particularly for goods intensive in delayed inputs. These effects are larger when inventories are already at low levels. We fit the model to the U.S. and global economies from 2020-2022 and estimate large aggregate effects of supply disruptions. Our model predicts that the boost in output from reducing delays will be smaller than the contraction from the waning effects of stimulus.
Notes
January 2023.
Source of description
Print version record
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