LEADER 02774cmm a22003617i 4500001    99125458002006421
006    m#####o##d########
007    cr#mn######a#a
008    220307s2022    miu     o     001 0 eng d
035    (MiAaI)ICPSR36432
040    MiAaI |beng |erda |cMiAaI
099    Electronic Resource
245 00 Projecting Violent Re-Offending in a Parole Population : |bDeveloping a Real-Time Forecasting Procedure to Inform Parole Decision-Making, Pennsylvania, 2012-2014 / |cRichard A. Berk.
250    2022-02-10
264  1 Ann Arbor, Mich. : |bInter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], |c2022
336    computer dataset |bcod |2rdacontent
337    computer |bc |2rdamedia
338    online resource |bcr |2rdacarrier
347    data file |2rda
490 0  ICPSR |v36432
516    Numeric
500    Title from ICPSR DDI metadata of 2022-03-07.
536    United States Department of Justice. Office of Justice Programs. National Institute of Justice |c2009-IJ-CX-0044
530    Also available as downloadable files.
522    Pennsylvania
522    United States
520 3  The University of Pennsylvania, in collaboration with the Pennsylvania Board of Probation and Parole (PBPP), began developing a violent forecast model utilizing the machine learning procedure random forest. By the spring of 2013, the forecasts were provided to decision makers prior to parole interviews. The violent forecast model (VFM) measures the extent to which offenders are likely to reoffend as indicated by future arrest. The VFM is a violence classification forecast and not an individual case prediction regarding offender behavior. Purpose The purpose of this research was to evaluate the impact of introducing forecasts of "future dangerousness" into PBPP's decision making process during parole interviews. The researcher anticipated that having available a sufficiently reliable forecast, particularly within the violent category, would reduce the likelihood of a parole release. The null hypothesis tested was that there would be no difference in parole release decisions when comparing two similar groups of offenders where during one group of parole interviews the decision maker had a forecast available and the other group of interviews there was not a forecast available.Cf: http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR36432.v1
567    Pennsylvania Parolees
700 1  Berk, Richard A. |uUniversity of Pennsylvania, |eeditor. |0http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n79056124
710 2  Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research. |0http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n79141035
830  0 ICPSR (Series) |v36432