A Review of Cyclical Indicators for the United States: Preliminary Results / Victor Zarnowitz.

Author
Zarnowitz, Victor [Browse]
Format
Book
Language
English
Published/​Created
  • Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 1973.
  • Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, 1973.
Description
1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);

Details

Subject(s)
Series
  • Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w0006. [More in this series]
  • NBER working paper series no. w0006
Summary note
This paper represents a very early progress report on a new study of business cycle indicators for the United States. Our host organization, CIRET, is concerned with research on surveys of economic tendencies that cover broad areas of business, investment, and consumer behavior. These inquiries yield mainly qualitative data on plans and expectations of economic decision-making units. Such data are aggregated and also in a sense quantified in form of diffusion indexes (the Ifo Business Test and its components may serve as examples), but they are basically limited to showing only the direction and not the size of changes in the economic variables covered. A major purpose of compiling and analyzing these diffusion measures is to improve prediction of cyclical movements in business activity. This objective is the same as that pursued in the National Bureau studies of quantitative business cycle indicators -- the latest of which is the project to be discussed in this paper. Appraisals of the predictive records and potentials of these two time series data sets (the cyclical indicators and the expectational diffusion indexes) are therefore definitely an appropriate subject for consideration in this conference.
Notes
July 1973.
Bibliographic references
Includes bibliographical references.
Source of description
Print version record
Other title(s)
A Review of Cyclical Indicators for the United States
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