Princeton University Library Catalog

Nowcasting Annual National Accounts with Quarterly Indicators [electronic resource] : An Assessment of Widely Used Benchmarking Methods / Marco Marini.

Marini, Marco [Browse]
Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2016.
1 online resource (25 p.)
IMF Working Papers [More in this series]
Summary note:
Benchmarking methods can be used to extrapolate (or "nowcast") low-frequency benchmarks on the basis of available high-frequency indicators. Quarterly national accounts are a typical example, where a number of monthly and quarterly indicators of economic activity are used to calculate preliminary annual estimates of GDP. Using both simulated and real-life national accounts data, this paper aims at assessing the prediction accuracy of three benchmarking methods widely used in the national accounts compilation: the proportional Denton method, the proportional Cholette-Dagum method with first-order autoregressive error, and the regression-based Chow-Lin method. The results show that the Cholette-Dagum method provides the most accurate extrapolations when the indicator and the annual benchmarks move along the same trend. However, the Denton and Chow-Lin methods could prevail in real-life cases when the quarterly indicator temporarily deviates from the target series.
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Description based on print version record.
  • 1484301188 :
  • 10.5089/9781484301180.001
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